TSMC announced the mass production of 3nm two days before the end of 2022. Liu Deyin, the chairman of TSMC, said that it was not worried about customers. The industry generally believed that the first customer of 3nm technology should be Apple. However, even Apple did not have full confidence in 3nm, which was in sharp contrast with TSMC’s attitude.
TSMC is full of confidence in 3nm, but American technology enterprises are not confident enough
Industry insiders pointed out that Apple’s processor produced by TSMC’s 3nm process should be A17 processor. Previously, it was rumored that Apple might use the 3nm process to produce M3 processor or it would not become a reality, because the cost of the 3nm process was too high for Apple to bear.https://store.stoneitech.com/
TSMC’s 3nm process was originally planned for mass production in the third quarter of last year, but at that time, the performance of the A16 processor trial-produced by TSMC was not up to standard, and Apple was not satisfied. Therefore, the A16 processor adopted the improved N4 process of the 5nm process instead of the 3nm process. Then TSMC further improved the 3nm process. It is estimated that the 3nm process currently announced by TSMC should be the N3E process.
Liu Deyin, CEO of TSMC, pointed out that the logic density of the 3nm process increased by 60%, and the power consumption decreased by 30% – 35%. However, this is only a one-sided statement of TSMC. In fact, the true technical level will not be known until the same quantity of A17 processors is produced. The previous N4 process has also been promoted by 11%, and the A16 processor produced by the N4 process has claimed to improve the performance by 15%. However, the actual measurement of the iPhone14Pro has only improved by about 10%.
Although TSMC has announced the mass production of 3nm technology, Taiwan media pointed out that the current 3nm technology is still improving the yield. If it is used to produce A17 processors, it means that TSMC will spend at least half a year to improve the yield level, indicating that the mass production of 3nm technology is still facing difficulties.
TSMC is full of confidence in 3nm, but American technology enterprises are not confident enough
Although TSMC claims not to worry about customers, it is only Apple that can determine the customers, and the industry expects that iPhone15 will continue the strategy of iPhone14, that is, only high-end iPhone15Pro and iPhone15Pro max will use A17 processor, iPhone15 and iPhone15plus will continue to use A16 processor, so the order quantity of A17 processor will also be less than A15 processor, and the previous iPhone13 will all use A15 processor.
Apple did so because of the sharp increase in the cost of advanced technology. The N4 technology adopted by A16 processor is improved from 5nm technology, and the cost increase is relatively large; The 3nm process is a newly upgraded process, and it is expected that the chip design cost will double compared to 5nm, and the wafer cost will increase by 25%. TSMC thought the cost was rising and asked Apple to share the cost, but Apple has refused.
Apple also has its reasons for refusing to raise the price. That is, the 2022 iPhone14Pro adopted the A16 processor with higher cost. However, due to the concern about sales, the starting price did not rise. Then the iPhone14Pro only went on sale for more than one month, and it could only reduce the price by 600 yuan in the Double 11. It can be seen that the market really cannot accept the expensive iPhone, and consumers do not accept the price increase, and Apple is certainly not willing to increase the price.
In fact, not only Apple is facing cost pressure, but all mobile phone companies are under pressure due to the global recession of mobile phones. Recently, it was announced that another customer of TSMC, Qualcomm, will also lower the price of mid-end and low-end chips to win the support of Chinese mobile phones. American analog chip and RF chip companies had inventory problems in the first half of 2022 and were forced to reduce the price by 90%. It can be seen that American chips are now generally under performance pressure.
American chips are the main customers of TSMC, contributing nearly 70% of its revenue to TSMC. American chips are generally unwilling to increase or even ask for price reduction. TSMC hopes that it will not be easy to share the cost of American chips. Now perhaps TSMC begins to miss a Chinese technology company that once contributed 14% of its revenue. At that time, due to the balance of this Chinese technology company, TSMC gained the bargaining power and kept increasing its price.
TSMC is full of confidence in 3nm, but American technology enterprises are not confident enough
Faced with such a situation, TSMC seems to have begun to recognize the role of Chinese chips. While building 5nm and 3nm factories in the United States, TSMC is expanding 28nm process capacity in Chinese Mainland, which undoubtedly hopes to gain more revenue from the Chinese market, balance American chips, and ensure its bargaining power. However, 28nm has limited significance for Chinese chips. After all, chip manufacturers in Chinese Mainland have produced 14nm in mass, TSMC’s 28nm is not competitive, and TSMC may only continue to be subject to American chips.
TSMC is full of confidence in 3nm, but American technology enterprises are not confident enough
