By hmimcu With major central banks such as the Federal Reserve raising interest rates sharply, international geopolitical risks continue to rise, and the risk of recession facing the world is deepening. In this context, the global chip market is cooling rapidly, and its cooling range is expected to exceed previous expectations.
On Monday, the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization (WSTS) lowered its chip sales growth forecast this year from 16.3% to 13.9% in the latest report, and it is expected that chip sales will increase by only 4.6% in 2023, the lowest growth rate since 2019. In contrast, the growth rate of global semiconductor chip sales in 2021 is as high as 26.2%.
Headquartered in California, USA, WSTS is a non-profit organization that tracks global chip shipments. Its members include Texas Instruments, Samsung Electronics, Sony Semiconductor Solutions and many other semiconductor industry giants.
WSTS expects the size of the chip market to be $633 billion this year, and the demand for chips in most categories is expected to still show a high year-on-year growth rate. Among them, logic chips are expected to grow the strongest, at 24.1%, analog chips with a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, and sensors with a year-on-year increase of 16.6%. Optoelectronic chips are expected to remain the slowest growing category, with a year-on-year growth rate of only 0.2%.
Recession risks weigh on chip sales growth
As homes and businesses become increasingly dependent on digital devices and online services, chip sales data has become an important indicator of global economic activity.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast last month and said the global economy could grow at a slower pace in 2023 than this year. hmi screen touch
Bloomberg’s economic model predicts a 100 percent chance of a recession in the U.S. over the next 24 months.
As recession risks continue to intensify, WSTS expects the global semiconductor market growth rate to slow to 4.6% in 2023, with a market size of $662 billion. Among them, the market size of logic chip products is expected to reach $200 billion in 2023, accounting for about 30% of the total market.
WSTS expects Japan’s chip sales growth rate to be the strongest in 2023, at 5%.” It was followed by the Americas at 4.8%; Chip sales in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) are expected to grow at a rate of 4.7 percent. Europe’s chip sales growth rate is expected to be relatively low, at 3.2%, mainly because the Russian-Ukrainian war and related sanctions have dragged down the continent’s economic growth.